Trump

by

Alexi Navalny RIP

The death today is yet another example of what happens to critics of Vladimir Putin. An incredibly brave and industrious searcher for truth. His humanity and commitment to democracy in sharp contrast to that of the man who had him locked up and murdered after his first assassination attempt failed.

This is the man that ex President Trump said could do what he wanted to those states in NATO that did not invest 2% of their GDP in defence! If ever two threats to democracy deserved each other.

Here’s an example of Alexi’s work exposing the corrupt excesses of Putin world. It illustrates the enthusiasm and raw energy of a genuine patriot who cared for his country and ultimately gave his life trying to preserve it from the predatory gangsters led by Putin.

This is a sad day for Russia and the Russian people.

by

Trump fails to make the Cut

After spending four years laying waste to the constitutional, ethical and moral standards of American government; undermining the nations global standing; denigrating democracy; promoting insurrection, there is no sign that President Trump understands much less feels responsibility or guilt for the havoc he has wrought.

Today however comes news which is certain to penetrate the carapace of Trumpland indifference. Reuters report the PGA of America have terminated their agreement with the Trump National Golf Club to host the 2022 PGA Championship. They fear such a connection would tarnish the image of the PGA of America.

There is one area of laser like focus in the Trump universe – money. This will hurt Trump where he feels it most, in his pocket. His financial exposure was already looking tricky with significant debt due to be repaid in the not too distant future. A future he thought his Presidential status would protect him from.

It is very unlikely this will be the only commercial reversal the incompetent insurrectionist will experience over coming months. As he steps out of the presidency he steps into a a whole load of heartache with less and less support.

If the front nine were the presidency and the back nine the transition we can safely say he has lost both. Not because of bad weather, bent clubs or square balls. Just pure and simple self confident incompetence. Losing the election was always bad news for Trump given the sharks circling outside of the White House. Losing the transition is like pouring a pint of blood into the water before diving in. It could not be happening to a better person.

by

On Tyranny. “…it could never happen here?”

This is a book you can read in a morning and is well worth the time. First published in 2017 it is shot through with real concern and a sense of urgency following early experiences of the Trump campaign and presidency.

The book, written by Timothy Snyder, Housum Professor of History at Yale, looks at the tyrannies of the 20th Century, particularly Hitlers Fascism and Stalin’s soviet communism. It identifies a set of behaviours to be avoided or adopted to oppose tyrants. These are set in a theory of history which see it as being made as much through the voluntary actions of the many as what appear to be the irresistible impositions of a few. And a theory of democracy which sees it as something to be tended and nurtured regularly. A key part citizenship is a responsibility to actively engage in that process.

His concerns about the behaviours of Trump which parallel those of tyrants of the 20th and 21st century have only become clearer in the period since the book was written. The attacks on the judiciary and the media; the rejection of truth; the characterisation of political opponents as extremists or enemies of the people; the use of the state apparatus to persecute critics; the demands for personal loyalty over professional integrity. The parallels with nazi Germany, the Soviet union and more recent political strongmen are truly frightening.

The book is a demand we learn from history and as citizens identify ways in which individually and collectively, in our day to day behaviour and in organised actions, we can oppose the threat which Trump is seen as posing.

The strategies include things which stated alone seem blindingly obvious, like “believe in truth”; “defend institutions”; “remember professional ethics”. Five years ago, as advice to a mature democracy, they would have appeared as simplistic truisms. It is interesting how, with four years of a Trump presidency, they take on a much more powerful relevance.

A key message of the book is that, as Professor Snyder puts it, “Most of the power of authoritarianism is freely given.” He warns against “anticipatory obedience”. This is where an aspirant tyrant starts to fly policy kites and waits to see if people start to adopt behaviours ahead of any specific action. If this occurs the tyrant is emboldened to go further.

The book outlines how this type of behaviour sealed the fate of Austrian Jews. How Hitler only had to threaten annexation of Austria to secure violent discrimination against Jews by Austrian nazis. This experience of anticipatory obedience taught the nazi leadership a lesson which added confidence to their organising of Kristallnacht.

On Tyranny provides a challenging frame to assess the Trump presidency. The author’s passion is clearly driven by his deep understanding of the holocaust. Particularly the recognition that the acts of omission by the many contributed to the horror as well as the acts of commission by the minority. In addition to the passion and urgency a real sense of fear pervades the writing.

At the time it was written I think the fear was well founded. As we approach the 2020 election I now have more hope. Although the awfulness of Trump was apparent his incompetence was still being revealed. An incompetence which extends not just to the governance of the nation but to his own affairs and long term best interest.

Two years down the track and it is clear he does not just lie to others he lies to himself. What is more, the self deception only gets worse as the reality and his mental picture of reality diverge. Whilst there is still significant risk with voter suppression; calls to his solid base of armed supporters to go poll watching; attempts to discredit the result and refusal to confirm he will accept it; packing the Supreme and federal court system to facilitate future legal challenge, there is a growing sense that American democracy is going to fight back.

The polls show not just a Biden lead but the potential for a blue wave to crash across the capitol taking both houses of Congress. It is no less than the pliant Republican poodles deserve. They are up to their necks in the outrageous behaviour of their president, whatever distance they are now trying to put between themselves hand him.

One institution, more than any other provides comfort that a Trump coup is unlikely to succeed. If you want to lead a coup make sure the armed forces are on your side. Two hundred and fifty years of civilian government has embedded a culture of military compliance with civilian authority. Further, you do not gain the support of people that risk their lives for their country by denigrating their sacrifice.

Professor Snyder’s worries about tyranny, may not come to fruition in the person of Donald Trump. Democracy may consign him to an ignoble chapter in the history of US presidents. However, no one should underestimate the stress US democracy has experienced over the past four years or its impact on the body politic.

Even if President Trump is voted out America has much to do to repair and strengthen its democratic systems and procedures but most important its democratic values. It remains to be seen whether Joe Biden is up to the job.

On Tyranny provides something of a yard stick to measure the damage that has been done. What it shows, across all parts of US governmental institutions, is that what was unthinkable 5 years ago has become commonplace. It would be a brave person, following the Trump presidency who could say “it could never happen here.” It is up to the American people to make sure it never does.

On Tyranny. Prof. Timothy Snyder.The Bodley Head. 2017

by

Why Joe Biden Will not win the US Election

Political prediction is almost always a hope of the heart propelled by a wishful intellect. However…

I hardly dare say it but it does look as if the wheels are finally coming off the clown car which is the Trump administration. Naturally at this point in any predictive article it is important to put the Wilsonian disclaimer in that “a week is a long time in politics” and we are a good four months from 3 November when Americans go to the polls.

When they do go they will not just be judging the performance of their President they will also be voting for 35 seats in the Senate, where the Republicans currently have a six seat majority, and all 435 members of the House of Representatives where the Democrats have a 15 seat majority.

At the moment Mr Biden has a double digit poll lead. Even his closest supporters would be hard pressed to put this down to energetic, charismatic, high profile campaigning. 

What Mr Biden does have on his side is President Trump and an administration which increasingly lacks competence and credibility. An administration long on loyalty but short on ability. Better yet even the long position seems to be starting to crack.

A large number of Americans have been giving President Trump the benefit of the doubt. I have no doubt that, for a very tiny fraction of Americans, the spiteful and juvenile stream of tweets; the coarse behaviour and articulation of clearly racist and misogynist views were welcomed. For a much larger number however, I suspect there was a feeling this was a price worth paying to shake up the elite and drain the swamp. They had been ignored for so long that something radically different was needed. Well they certainly got that.

Having said this it became ever more difficult to understand why the President’s increasingly unconstitutional and bizarre behaviour seemed to come at no cost to his support. People appeared to be willing to accommodate ever more outrageous attacks on the very foundations of the US constitution. 

The separation of powers, the independence of the judiciary, the chain of command, respect for the law, threats to a free press, abuse of office for personal gain, nepotism. As they occurred individually and even as they accumulated they did not lead to the level of public outrage that many thought appropriate and inevitable. However, over the years they have built up a picture which people simply did not focus on when the economy was booming and unemployment was falling to record low levels.

But now, Covid-19 (C-19) has burst the bubble of the Trump narrative. His bluster and incompetence have been revealed for what they are.  

The shotgun the President took early on in his Administration to health care was always pointed at his foot. Having shot off one foot in the mid-terms he carefully took aim at this issue again on the other foot! 

His denial of C-19, his failure to act early, his stupid musings on how to cure it with disinfectant, his refusal to model appropriate social distancing practices, his rush to reopen the economy, prioritising re-election over American lives, all reveal the essence of the man. An incompetent narcissist, with the attention span of a goldfish and IQ to match.  Whilst this has been visible to some for a long time it is now being brought home to all Americans in the most cruel manner.

This awakening is set to lead to a re-evaluation of much of the past five years. The doubt is over. He really is what he appears to be. What is more that re-evaluation may not simply focus on the President. The Republican party and its members of the Senate and House; the cast of venal  incompetents, extreme loyalists and yes men that make up his cabinet, and the upper echelons of the Federal bureaucracy appointed by Trump may all feel the growing wrath of the American people. 

It is clear some of his “team” are beginning to see this. Members of his own party, startled by polling numbers, are starting to put their head above the parapet. Senator John Thune has urged the President to focus on an electoral strategy which, “deals with substance and policy…”  and is presented in a different “tone”. Good luck with that one Senator.

What 4 years have shown is the complete lack of ability of this President. The esteem of the nation in the eyes of its allies is lower than it has ever been. Its  foreign policy a combination of rhetorical triumphs with practical failure, see North Korea and the Middle East. A craven response to dictators, see Russia and its interest in Ukraine, and Turkey and its interests in Syria. A trade “policy” the theoretical idiocy of which is only exceeded by its incompetent implementation. A legislative record, the golden star of which was a tax cut focussed clearly on the 1%.

If the election was tomorrow it is very likely there would be a Democratic landslide. The Republicans must be praying for a miracle because there is nothing on the horizon set to help. The monumental mishandling of the virus means America is now sitting on an epidemic time bomb set to overwhelm the medical services of the richest country in the world. The graph below shows the surging infection numbers. This will eventually force an effective lockdown and an avoidable protraction of the damage to the economy. 

Covid-19 Confirmed Cases. Source: The New York Times


Even if the disease were to disappear tomorrow the impact has been devastating. The virus has already taken more American lives than the wars in  Korea and Vietnam combined (94k), and more than the First World War (116k).  If the current level of incompetence is not addressed quickly and radically it is not inconceivable the final death toll could compete with America’s previous worst, the 650k killed in the Civil War. Of course the Civil War lasted four years, C-19 has killed more than 125k in four months.

Whilst all of this grim reality provides hope President Trump will be gone in 7 months time it also generates fear. It is certain he will not go quietly. A totally compliant Attorney General who confuses his role with that of defence counsel to the President, provides a powerful tool for skewing the election process. Voter suppression is an industry in some Republican States and is set to go into overdrive. Legal attacks on Nixonian type “enemies” is more than a risk, and Joe Biden has already been in the crosshairs. 

Worse, some other form of domestic of foreign crisis may be manufactured. The difficulty with this, for Trump, is that the American people are increasingly  unlikely to be reassured any such crisis will best be handled with him as President.

Trump’s aggressive, vindictive nature is not going to be a pretty sight as it becomes more apparent he is going to lose. We are in for a very rough few months with the US constitution and nation strained to the absolute limit.

Mr Biden’s best efforts may not win the election but there is every chance Donald Trump will lose it and lose it spectacularly. Fingers crossed, for if he does not lose and lose clearly, the prospect for the States is definitely not United.