Presidential Transition

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Trump’s Base Shrinking?

The latest Pew Research poll of electors, conducted after the attack on the Capitol, confirms a significantly deteriorating and negative view of president Trump post the election as compared to a stable and positive view of Joe Biden. Those that view Joe Biden’s conduct since the election as “excellent” or “good” have increased from 62% to 64%, whilst those that view his conduct as “only fair” or “poor” have reduced from 37% to 35%.

The numbers for the President however have moved significantly against him, from 31% rating his conduct as “good” or “excellent” to 23%. Whilst those rating his performance as “poor” have increased by 8%.

Looking specifically at the issue of responsibility for the attack on the Capitol, 75% of all voters felt he had “a lot” or “some” responsibility for the violence. Further, even amongst Republicans and those that lean Republican, a majority (52%) felt he had “a lot’ or “some” responsibility.

It is of course true this leaves a very significant minority (46%) of Republican supporters reporting the president as having no responsibility for the actions on the Capitol. So clearly there are large numbers of dedicated Trump supporters who remain faithful. However, these figures show a substantial division within the GOP, one which has the potential to become a major rift. One which, further actions of a very angry and often irrational president, may increase.

All of this suggests it is becoming increasingly urgent for the Republican party leadership to decide whether they want to risk sinking with Donald Trump or swimming away from him. To date they have been frightened because of his base. As evidence emerges his base might be shrinking the “courage” to abandon him may grow.

The problem is that as the base shrinks it becomes more and more concentrated in and represented by a dangerous cocktail of extremists. People whose actions the president has legitimated and encouraged over 4 years. The clearer their extremism becomes the more difficult it will be for the many rank and file Republicans to align with them.

President Trump and the GOP have unleashed a tiger and they are now stuck holding its tail. Its actions may well revert to them and indeed it may end up devouring the party which released it. Vice President Pence and Lyndsey Graham have both felt its hot breath on their neck.

It will take Joe Biden a long while to get that genie back in its bottle and starve it of the wider despair and distrust that decades of political neglect have created amongst the vast majority of Americans.

Joe Biden won the election. It is increasingly clear he is winning the transition. His biggest challenge is to create a winning presidency. A presidency which unites the vast majority of Americans behind policies which provide tangible hope for the future over the divisive despair of the past.

This task is daunting as it means having to address the tectonic plates of economic inequality which structure so many of the problems of the United States. All of those interested in the future of democracy must wish him well and support him.

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Trump fails to make the Cut

After spending four years laying waste to the constitutional, ethical and moral standards of American government; undermining the nations global standing; denigrating democracy; promoting insurrection, there is no sign that President Trump understands much less feels responsibility or guilt for the havoc he has wrought.

Today however comes news which is certain to penetrate the carapace of Trumpland indifference. Reuters report the PGA of America have terminated their agreement with the Trump National Golf Club to host the 2022 PGA Championship. They fear such a connection would tarnish the image of the PGA of America.

There is one area of laser like focus in the Trump universe – money. This will hurt Trump where he feels it most, in his pocket. His financial exposure was already looking tricky with significant debt due to be repaid in the not too distant future. A future he thought his Presidential status would protect him from.

It is very unlikely this will be the only commercial reversal the incompetent insurrectionist will experience over coming months. As he steps out of the presidency he steps into a a whole load of heartache with less and less support.

If the front nine were the presidency and the back nine the transition we can safely say he has lost both. Not because of bad weather, bent clubs or square balls. Just pure and simple self confident incompetence. Losing the election was always bad news for Trump given the sharks circling outside of the White House. Losing the transition is like pouring a pint of blood into the water before diving in. It could not be happening to a better person.

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Losing the Transition

Comparing Napoleon the First and Louis Bonaparte Marx wrote, “Hegel remarks somewhere that all great, world-historic facts and personages occur, as it were, twice. He has forgotten to add: the first time as tragedy, the second as farce.” Donald Trump, for whom uniquely an ad hominem attack is virtually always justified, manages to combine both simultaneously.

Having lost the credibility of a substantial proportion of the population and consequently the election he is now set on losing the transition. It is clear public opinion, including amongst Republican supporters, has been moving away from President Trump as his increasingly strident but increasingly discredited rhetoric about election fraud has continued.

His latest, and, to date, most egregious actions inciting a rally of his supporters to “walk to the Congress” and “fight” produced an event which combined farce and tragedy in equal parts. Whilst his actions may not meet a statutory definition of sedition they certainly pass the common sense and everyday meaning of the word – “the use of words or actions that are intended to encourage people to oppose a government” (OED).

However, this call to insurrection betrayed all the hallmarks of the Trump presidency. Born out of wishful thinking with no consideration of the realities of the situation. A complete absence of concern for the consequences on his colleagues, the legislature, the government of the United States and its standing in the world. But most cynically of all, the consequences for his supporters.

The invasion of the building did not approach the political sophistication of a student sit-in. Shockingly, the security which faced the invaders appears to have been of a similar vintage. Sheer weight of numbers more than sufficient to secure entry.

The ubiquitous still and moving images of the event create an unforgettable and rich evidential source for future prosecutions. One has to think the political commitment to “no masks” by the organisers might not have been as thoroughly thought through as it could have been.

What came across was a front line of individuals, mainly men in outlandish costumes with racist and anti-semitic slogans printed on their t-shirts and bodies. These, on the ground “leaders”, were followed by rag tag flock of “sheep” consisting of what looked like a lot of middle-aged and elderly moms and pops. These, cannon fodder were closely “supported”, from three miles away, by the Trump family General Staff sitting in the White House bravely engaged in watching the battle on tv.

Tragically, the aggressive front line reinforced by the unthinking weight of support from the rear led to events like the crushing of riot police in doors and the totally unanticipated “success” of accessing the House and the Senate. Of course it is one thing to threaten and even to succeed in occupying the concourse of a university building. It is another altogether to prevent the legislative arm of government doing its constitutional duty of counting the votes in a presidential election.

In form this was an insurrectionist act. However, from the start it lacked credible content. Having successfully breached the security of the building they had no idea what to do next other than steal a lectern and leave adolescent notes on the desk of the leader of the House of Representatives.

The events of 6 January are truly shocking, and become more so as further video evidence emerges showing the aggressive violence of some of the insurgents. Whether it was incompetence, conspiracy, or mature restraint the death toll could have been much greater if the defenders had committed early to the use of deadly force.

The question of how different it might have been if this had been a Black Lives Matter invasion has been raised by many. Whatever may have happened in those circumstances it is worth remembering what did happen to a Vietnam War protest in 1970 at Kent State University where 4 students were shot dead and nine others wounded by the National Guard. The stain of the actions of the insurgents may be indelible but it could have been a great deal bloodier.

Beyond this however one has got to ask the question; five lives lost, for what?

Neither General Trump, nor his misguided militia had any sensible, much less credible, plan of action. This was not a coup it was a mindless stamping of feet. Like so much of his thinking his notion of a coup rests on the firm theoretical foundations of what he sees on tv. He wants to remain President so he thinks all he has to do is issue an instruction. “Make it so Number One.” Republican Senators, those responsible for the election count, his Vice President and his sadly misguided supporters all told to “Make it so”.

As President he had the power to shape much of the external world to fit his internal picture, and where he could not, eg. when Covid-19 ignored presidential edicts, he frightened those around him into agreeing it looked the way he said it did. As his power and influence ebbs away the pressure of reality is starting to push in upon him, and it hurts.

There is no doubt that he will continue to lash out. His irresponsible thrashing may well cause significant damage and may even, unforgivably, cause further deaths. He will not achieve his goal however, indeed, every outrage, every irrational outburst is reducing his credibility and isolating him.

He is of course the most powerful man on earth until noon on 20 January. I for one will not breathe easy until that moment comes. I draw some comfort from the fact some of his most loyal supporters show signs of growing up. It is, however, long past time they started to become the adults in the room.

President Trump lost the election and he is now losing the transition. His erstwhile loyal followers need to understand this and move from verbal condemnation to action. In truth they bear a heavy responsibility for what has happened. But Trump is sui generis and nothing should detract from the current priority of preventing him doing further damage to the United States and the world and seeing him out of office.

It is time to bring this tragic farce to an end.