Middle East

by

“plus ca change”

A deadly attack on the al-Tabin school by the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) was justified on the grounds that it was a command and control centre for Hamas terrorists. Hospitals have also been attacked because of the terrorists alleged to be hiding there. This betrays a very inclusive definition of terrorists which has been maintained for a long time by the IDF. The cartoon below was produced by Gary Trudeau in 1982 and seems to capture the expansive view that continues to be adopted.

It is uncomfortable finding humour in such matters. The cartoon relates to when the the PLO was driven out of Beirut by the IDF, which was followed by a massacre of Palestinian and Lebanese Shia refugees in the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps.

The massacre at the time involved the killing of somewhere between 1,300 and 3,500 civilians and was condemned by the UN General Assembly as an act of genocide. The US and a number of other nations objected to the term genocide. As the number of those killed approaches 40k and the number of cultural, religious, educational and medical buildings are flattened when will the definition of genocide become appropriate?

The power of the Trudeau cartoon is its revealing the absurdity of claims which are so extreme as to be absurd. Claims which attempt to justify the unjustifiable.

Doonesbury cartoon taken from “The Hundred Years War on Palestine” by R. Khalidi. Profile Books 2020.

by

“Don’t look now!”

Over recent weeks there seems to have been an acceleration of the actions by the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) and a greater willingness to attack targets which ought to be off limits under International Humanitarian Law. Is this a result of the election season which has seen France and the UK involved in snap elections, and the US engaged in the marathon process they have to elect an new president?

All eyes have been focused on domestic issues and will continue to be so for some time. International issues discussed at the recent NATO summit in Washington focused, as one might expect on threats against NATO members. However, it also spent a good deal of time confirming support for Ukraine, much to be applauded, although they are not (yet) a NATO member.

Given its defensive posture focused on member’s borders the absence of any focus on Gaza is perhaps not a surprise. As a potential source of instability linked to Iran and the wider middle East it might have justified some comment as a contingent risk.

Whether NATO might have commented or not, there appears to be a total lack of political focus on amongst the key external players on what is happening in Gaza and the West bank at the moment. Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to be taking maximum advantage of this to the despair of the Palestinian people, and to those in the west, and around the world, watching a process of ferocious but slow motion Genocide taking place before our eyes.

by

Changing the Middle East

The mediaeval barbarism of 7 October 2023 was cruelly twisted to secure maximum terroristic effect by having its atrocities filmed and then made available to the world, and thus despicably, to the victim’s relatives. Horror shows of murder, mutilation and abduction displaying a disregard for human life and revealing a visceral loathing for Jews.

It is not surprising that this action would instil fear in a nation built to protect its Jewish citizens from precisely this kind of merciless and violent persecution. Something Jews have experienced over the centuries culminating in Hitler’s effort to annihilate them in an industrial attempt at genocide.

Given all this, a strong, not to say fierce, response from the Israeli Government via the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) was inevitable. Actions to defend Israel and secure retribution against the perpetrators was and is justified. Securing some justice for the innocent victims and recovering the hostages was and remains a justifiable goal. However, the scale and the nature of the response has raised questions and concerns from the start which have only deepened and multiplied over time.

Following the attack, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israel was at war with Hamas and it would not end until the group was completely eliminated from Gaza and the safety of Israel was secured.

The United States quickly got behind this goal followed by the UK and a range of other Western nations. This was seen as a war against a terrorist organisation which had carried out a 9/11 type outrage and was thus legitimate.

In addition to this specific if ambitious target, Prime Minister Netanyahu also spoke about how Israel’s response would “change the Middle East”. A much more ambiguous goal but, as the campaign has progressed, an increasingly ominous one.

An ever-mounting civilian toll has eaten away at the unwavering support promised at the outset. The increasing unease of Israel’s allies has resulted in ever more complex circumlocutions about the support and its being tied to care to minimise civilian casualties. With good reason.

Given the atrocious actions of Hamas that triggered the current war, Israel could adopt the moral high ground and very quickly did. At every opportunity it has justified its actions as self-defence by graphic reference back to the bestiality of what Hamas did on 10/7. Everything that Israel has done since then and all the civilian casualties of the Israeli action has been placed at the door of Hamas.

To be clear the actions of Hamas are inexcusable. They are war crimes that need to be brought to justice. However, that does not make them inexplicable. The actions were not irrational, motiveless violence. They have causes in a 70-year confrontation between Arabs and Jews in Palestine. If this history is ignored it is unlikely a viable way forward will be found.

Not only are they not inexplicable but neither do they justify the level of sustained and indiscriminate bombing of civilian Palestinians.

The IDF claims it is only targeting Hamas. However, when one looks at the level of destruction wrought across the North, Central and finally Southern Gazza one can only conclude that the IDF are awfully bad shots. In truth the claim is not credible. In an area which is one of the most densely populated on earth it was inevitable that the scale of the bombing carried out would have a massive civilian toll.

The IDF blames this on the fact that Hamas adopted the morally despicable act of using their own citizens as human shields. However, the efficacy of human shields depends on the humanitarian values of those they are used against. The immoral act of using defenceless civilians as a shield is morally matched, not opposed, by the act of shooting through them.

The moral high ground is a slippery place and the actions of the Netanyahu government from the very start of the offensive indicated very unsure footing. Actions that included the closing of the borders, stopping food and medical supplies, the turning off of power and water to 2.3m people, ordering c1.m residents of Gaza City to move South within 24 hours.

The claims of moral authority because residents were warned to leave and go South ring hollow when those that do are bombed on their journey and again when they arrive in the “safe” South. They are then told to go West, toward the sea. The 2.3m population of Gaza appears to be being herded into a smaller and smaller fraction of the small pocket of the territory they live in.

All of this in order to prosecute a war against c40-60k Hamas fighters is difficult to see as proportionate or in accordance with international humanitarian law.

The treatment of prisoners of war further undermines the moral position of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government and the IDF. Palestinian men stripped to their shorts and filmed in a grossly choreographed display of walking forward with hands above their heads to place weapons on the ground. The weapons, carefully ringed by the IDF to ensure they are not missed. What do they think this demonstrates?

The claim is they had to be stripped to ensure they did not have suicide vests on or hidden weapons. Who do they think believes they could not be searched and have their clothes handed back to them. This was not about security, it was about humiliation. Humiliation filmed and broadcast to the world.

When one looks at what Prime Minister Netanyahu’s forces do it looks like the aim to “change the Middle East” is primary.

What Prime Minister Netanyahu’s war has done is displace pretty much the whole of the population of Gaza making them refugees in the territory they have been confined as refugees in over the past 70 years. He has destroyed Gaza’s economic infrastructure, its health facilities, its educational infrastructure, and many of its religious and cultural buildings. He has humiliated its men and starved its women and children. Worst of all he has achieved this by killing c 33k of its citizens, many of whom are women and children.

This through a campaign of bombing which, at the beginning of December, had inflicted a higher level of damage to buildings than the allies achieved in Dresden and Cologne in World War 2. According to the same source in the Financial Times “Gaza will go down as a place name denoting one of history’s heaviest conventional bombing campaigns.”

Set aside whether you can win any conflict against groups like Hamas with bombs you certainly cannot do it without massive collateral damage. The sustained and comprehensive nature of the bombing seems precisely judged to do just that.

The whole of the population of Gaza has been traumatised unable to find the so-called safe areas they are directed to by the IDF. Desperate to secure food and water for their families they are forced to fight and scramble for any relief that gets through.

What can they look forward to? Suppose the IDF managed to kill all the members of Hamas tomorrow, then what? No homes, no jobs, no functioning health, education, security or other state service. Continued dependence on international relief.

There are three possible responses. First, resign yourself to the fate of a refugee in the largest open prison in the world. Second, seek to escape to somewhere else where you might be able to create a life for yourself. Third, create Hamas 2.0. Someone once said, if a person has nothing to live for they will soon find something to die for.

The West, but more specifically the United States and the UK, have stood shoulder to shoulder with their ally Prime Minister Netanyahu. They have believed his assurances about minimising the harm to the civilian population. As the death toll has mounted and the level of physical destruction become more and more apparent the allies have become increasingly uneasy.

The gap between what PM Netanyahu says he will do and what he does has become so wide that not even the most faithful ally can ignore it. Further, his adamant rejection of advice from his allies has prompted irritation amongst Western leaders which had begun to boil over.

When the killing stops the true numbers of those killed, injured and displaced will be far higher than anything that has been seen in the Middle East since the Six Day War in 1967. Arab losses in that war were roughly 20,000.

The level of physical destruction will be way beyond what might be justified by the doctrine of proportionate defence. The treatment of prisoners of war discussed above. The shooting of Israeli hostages, stripped to the waist waving white flags and shouting in Hebrew, by the IDF does not instil confidence that the IDF rules of engagement will have protected many Palestinian civilians.

In the end what this may look like is what a UN Commission defined as ethnic cleansing “… a purposeful policy designed by one ethnic or religious group to remove by violent and terror-inspiring means the civilian population of another ethnic or religious group from certain geographic areas.”

It is almost certain it will be perceived as that by Palestinian and Arab citizens across the Middle East, which should be a matter of concern to Israel. But what should perhaps be of more concern is the potential spread of this perception to a wider, developing nation cohort across the world and indeed to many citizens in developed nations watching the carnage on their screens.

The strategy of containment which has been pursued towards the Palestinians in recent years is clearly over. The events of 10/7 demonstrate it does not work even on its own terms. What appears to have replaced it is one of making Gazza unviable as a place to live. This is not new. Back in 2015 a UN Report set out the manifold ways in which the Palestinian territories viability was constantly undermined by Israel’s actions.

When this military campaign ends what happens?

Firstly, there will be a global focus on the area greater than there has been in many decades. Unless the civilian death toll is pure Hamas propaganda and the pictures of bombing devastation are deep fakes Israel will be perceived as having committed a whole host of crimes against international humanitarian law. These will be the focus of years of litigation and argument and will undermine the moral authority of Israel.

When it ends, someone will have to administer Gazza. If Israel takes on responsibility or they hand it to the Palestinian Authority the legitimacy of its governance will likely be zero, particularly if there is no prospect of a two-state solution.

If the Israeli blockade and economic strangle hold is maintained it will be a running sore and one which has much greater visibility than it has had in the past. Since its establishment in 1948 Israel has proved pretty much impervious to “international opinion” and has continued that position throughout the current war. Its ability to do this has been because its closest ally has been the richest and most powerful force on the earth.

Israel seems to take the support of the US for granted and abuses that position with apparent scant concern for the risk it might change. This is a mistake.

If Israel does not engage in good faith in a two-state solution what is the future? The plight of the Palestinian people will provide an excuse for new or re-established terrorist organisations to carry out atrocities against civilians in a country increasingly dominated by security. Provoking further state violence against civilians in territories with no security.

Global powers will seek to use the conflict to promote their own interests with merely rhetorical regard for the interests of the Palestinians, but also perhaps increasingly for the state of Israel.

The tit for tat ratchet between Israel and Iran has now been engaged. This may well achieve PM Netanyahu’s goal of changing the Middle East. But, as the saying goes, “be careful what you wish for”. The change might be one which brings continuing misery for the Palestinians but also growing insecurity and isolation for the State of Israel. No one can want eikther of these things.

by

UNWRA

The current controversy around the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNWRA) is dfifficult to make sense of.

On the strength of allegations by the the Israeli Government that 190 employees of the agency are members of Hamas or Palestinian Jihad and, even more seriously, that 12 of it employees were active participants in the atrocities of 10/7 some of its major donors have suspended their funding of UNWRA.

This is funding to an organisation of 30,000 employees who operate across Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon providing a range of welfare services including health, education and relief for people displaced by decades of conflict in the region.

More specifically it is currently engaged in providing food, water and health services into Gaza where the Israeli government’s war on Hamas has cost over 25,000 Palestinian lives and displaced 85% percent of the territories 2.2m inhabitants.

The speed with which the USA and the UK suspended its payments seemed remarkably swift. It was based on the allegations contained in a 6 page dossier which the Israeli Government would not provide to UNWRA. It is still not clear if these allegations have been independently corroborated.

It is not as if the allegations have emanated form an independent source. The allegations came shortly after the International Court of Justice found it plausible that Israel’s acts could amount to genocide in relation to its operations in Gaza. Trying to undermine the work of UNWRA might be seen as consistent with attacking the Palestinian civilian population as opposed to Hamas.

But even if we assume the allegations are eventually proved to be true. Is the response of the US and the UK appropriate?

If we add together the 190 accused of membership of Hamas and the 12 accused of engagement in 10/7 it amounts to 1.5% of UNWRA’s workforce in GAZA. Hardly definitive evidence that the Agency is systemically infiltrated by Hamas.

As soon as the allegations were made the head of UWRA preemptively dismissed the twelve employees accused prior to any independent investigation into their guilt or otherwise. Further, he referred the allegations to the UN’s Investigations Department for a thorough, Independent review of them.

Whilst UNWRA does carry out background checks on its employees, it also provides a list once a year to the Israeli government of the names of all its employees in Gaza and the West Bank.

An agency which acts in such a manner seems to be behaving precisely as you might expect and it is difficult to see what more it could do. Particularly as it is operating in a very challenging environment and has had 133 of its staff killed in Gaza since 10/7 as they struggle to support the 85% of the 2.2m Palestinians that have been displaced by the Israeli bombing.

In any circumstances a more appropriate response from our government and that of the US would be to set out their concerns and seek to ensure that a thorough and independent assessment of the allegations is carried out. If it proves to be true that 1.5% of UNWRA’s staff have gone rogue but that sensible precautions to avoid this have been taken then it should be a “lessons learned” exercise. UNWRA should set out how it would seek to prevent this in the future. This can never been anything other than best endeavours.

Only if it were to be proved definitively that the leadership of UNWRA were actively engaged in supporting the activities of Hamas should further action be taken.

But of course if UNWRA did not exist it would have to be invented. The needs of the Palestinians will not go away. Israel is not going to support them. Is Britain or America wanting to take on the role themselves?

After some very harsh words there seems to be some drawing back. The US pointing out that the vast bulk of its funding has already been paid to UNWRA. That they have money until the end of February. That the UN Investigation should be carried out in record time. Investigations that normally take months are to be completed in weeks.

It may have started to occur to the US and Britain how this is going to play around the world if relief via UNWRA stops. They will look even more complicit in the destruction of one of the last remaining homelands of the Palestinians. In a changing world this is not just morally indefensible it is diplomatically crazy.