Against a nation with the second largest number of nuclear missiles and one of the largest armed forces in the world Ukrainians are preparing to fight in the streets of their capital to defend democracy. Given the significance of this for Putin’s own future, without a Russian coup, their resistance is almost certainly doomed to bloody defeat.

However the capture of Kyiv will only create a running sore of opposition to Putin which may well rally others within Russia. This will be reinforced by the country becoming a pariah state with sanctions bleeding the country slowly but surely over time.

The swiftness and scale of the western response and the contrasting laboured pace of the invasion have probably taken Putin by surprise. His fellow “strong” leaders in Hungary and Turkey have abandoned him and even China is far from offering unqualified support.

There are almost certainly members of the officer class in Russia and members of his golden circle of oligarchs who will be wondering where Putin is leading his country. The destruction of Kyiv and the associated bloodbath that seems inevitable will be a hollow victory and will raise even more questions amongst ordinary Russians.

The west’s strategy seems to be to sacrifice the Ukrainian people on the premise that they cannot risk a nuclear confrontation, and the hope sanctions and the ostracisation of Russia will lead to some change in Putin or a change of Putin. Given his actions nuclear escalation can certainly not be ruled out and so caution is wise.

However, if he takes Ukraine and creates a vassal state and then starts military “exercises” on the border with Finland what should the west do? Does the bloody destruction of every non-NATO country in Europe become the price to be paid for “peace”. Do we risk deterrence becoming a one way street?

The future for Ukraine looks bleak. They are on the front line of democracy. If our strategy is as set out above then every support we can provide should be given to its people. Weapons both now to support its defence and in the future to support its opposition. Humanitarian aid to meet whatever disaster Putin creates, and safe haven for the refugees fleeing the country mostly, women and children. And we should be ashamed that a Minister of our Government suggested they apply for potato picking visas.

Sadly our country has adopted Churchillian rhetoric about defending democracy but applied Chamberlainian procrastination in its actions to support those that are doing the work. We have been on the coat tails of pretty much the rest of the west. Germany acted decisively and swiftly at real risk of negative economic consequences for its country.

At the moment this sadly has the look of a war of attrition which will not end with the bloody destruction of Ukrainian cities and the murder of its leaders. Ultimately, the only resolution will be the deposition of Putin. The longer that takes the worse this will be for Ukraine, for Europe, and for Russia.

Ukrainians are providing an object lesson in how valuable democracy is for people who have only relatively recently achieved it. Overnight they have transformed themselves from ordinary citizens to resolute defenders of democracy fighting for freedom. Many have been separated from their families many of whom have, in the blink of an eye, become refugees.

In much of the west, 75 years of democracy have made us complacent about its permanence and even its value. Some arguing enlightened dictatorship would be better. What people usually mean is an enlightened dictatorship doing what they think is right. The problem is once you get a dictator it is what they think is right which matters, and there is little you can do about it.

Democracy does not always secure the best leaders but just occasionally it does. Volodymyr Zelensky has risen above leaders across the west as someone who genuinely is willing to die for his country. He can be under no illusion as to what will happen to him if captured by Russian troops.

Putin is where you can end up when you have no effective way of getting rid of a leader.

If we are not going to fight with the Ukrainians, we should give them unstintingly of our support in every other possible way, even when it costs us. And we should humbly salute them and their leaders for their bravery in defending their country and defending democracy on our behalf.