There is much talk of negotiations of a ceasefire in Gaza inching closer and closer. Notably that is without representatives from Israel yet. Will this prevent a ground invasion of Rafah? My guess would be no. If there is a ceasefire it will at best provide a temporary respite. Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it clear that such a campaign is vital to secure victory in his war against Hamas.

The most likely scenarios are that Israel will not accept the proposed terms with a massive propaganda campaign about how they threaten the security of Israel. Alternatively, a ceasefire is put in place with Israel promising to open up crossing points to allow aid and medical support in and then slow-walking the implementation. Putting a myriad blockages in the way of significant and appropriate scales of aid, all under the rubric of security.

The ceasefire will breakdown amid claims of breaches and failures and the bombing will restart. And shortly after that a ground campaign in Rafah supported by another propaganda barrage about the perfidy of Hamas.

The only way a ceasefire might hold is if PM Netanyahu is replaced. Replaced by someone who can see that the unremitting devastation being wreaked on Gaza and the aggressive settler action in the West Bank are starting to create a momentum in global public opinion against Israel. Hamas may or may not ultimately be destroyed but Gaza already has. And yet when the fighting stops there will still be 2m Palestinians in the devastated territory. What is Israel going to do about that?

Israel’s leaders should remember the diplomatic dictum States do not have permanent allies, they have permanent interests. If Israel’s current allies start to feel their interests in a strong military presence in the Middle East can be served by another, and the public pressure to stop supporting Israel continues to mount there might be a change to the shape of the Middle East but one which is highly inimical to Israels interests. Such an outcome would be dreadful. But worst of all it would be largely self inflicted.