As our government wrestles with Covid-19 (C-19) and seems to be losing, of which more later, the issue of Brexit is starting to rumble again. At the end of this month is the deadline for a draft trade agreement to have been out in place and for the application for an extension of the transition period beyond 31 December 2020 if needed.

Government Ministers are clear no extension will be applied for or agreed if proposed by the EU. They reassure us that Europe really does want a deal with its largest trading partner but that they will only do so at the last minute.

Trade and economics are complex subjects and Ministers seem very confident the EU will see the light but if they do not  that the UK will go forward to trade in the wider world successfully anyway. Maybe.

It is true that the UK is a major trading partner of the EU. It comes third after the US and China and does some €511bn of imports and exports amounting to 12.6% of the EU’s total trade. Looking the other way the EU is a major trading partner of the UK accounting for 45% of our exports and 53% of our imports. Just based on these numbers it looks likely to be more painful for us than for them but hey trade and economics is complex. I have no doubt Ministers have a good grasp of the real balance of advantage.

One reason we do so much trade with the EU of course is because it is close to us. The friction of distance means there is a strong correlation between distance and scale of trade. As Father Ted explained to Dougal, long way away, small; close up, large. It is certain we will not stop trading with Europe on the 31 December if there is no deal its just that the terms of trade will be so much the worse for us both. Worse for the 48% of our trade with Europe and worse for the 12.6% of their trade with us.

However, we will be bringing back sovereignty to the UK. Of course this is a UK which C-19 has exposed as anything but United. The differing approaches to management of C-19 particularly the move out of lock down has thrown into relief the distinctions between the “devolved authorities” which are increasingly looking like separate nations.

This might be dismissed as cosmetic but it has a powerful impact on the sense of national unity when people are thinking about cross border difference between England and Wales. It reinforces a process that has been in progress for some years which threatens the long term unity of the UK.

On a more positive note… for the EU. The ordo liberalism of Germany’s financial elite seems to have started to crack. C-19 and the economic collapse it has spawned across Europe has infected the swabian housewife. As the economic consequence started to become clear Germany moved to put in place €150bn of new borrowing and a fiscal stimulus of €130bn to combat the impact within the country.

More significantly perhaps for the long term future of the European project Germany worked closely with France to secure €500bn of common EU debt to provide grants, not loans, to support C-19 hit EU countries economies.

All this might be seen as part of a process of deeper monetary and fiscal integration which may ultimately lead to a United States of Europe. Certainly the perception of an EU supporting its weaker members in their hour of need is a much more attractive proposition than one which kicks its weaker members (Greece) when they are down.

There is probably an inverse relationship between the volume and veracity of nationalist rhetoric. However, if there were  promoters of Brexit who were little Englanders they may well get exactly what they wished for. Sadly little England may well be next door to, but outside of, one of the largest and most powerful trading blocks in the world.