Brexit

Michael Gove pulls plans to reveal ‘watered down’ Yellowhammer | Financial Times

Michael Gove has pulled plans to publish a “watered down” version of the government’s Operation Yellowhammer no-deal Brexit contingency plans, after ministers decreed that the findings would still alarm the public.

Mr Gove, minister for no-deal planning, had been expected to publish extracts of the document on Tuesday as part of his efforts to prepare the UK for the possibility of Brexit taking place without an agreement on October 31.

Government officials worked throughout the weekend overhauling the Operation Yellowhammer document, and Mr Gove had hoped to use the work to prove that he had a grip on potential no-deal problems.

via Michael Gove pulls plans to reveal ‘watered down’ Yellowhammer | Financial Times

Lance Corporal Jones continues to reassure the public,… “Don”t panic, don’t panic!”

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“We the people…”

The Constitution of the United States of America has been called one of the hinges of history. For all its imperfections and the compromises over slavery it was a revolutionary document articulating the belief that sovereignty lies with those who are governed and not with those who govern.

The UK took a different path but arrived at a similar recognition of the location of sovereignty. Whilst there are written sources on process, eg Erskine May, there is, however, no definitive written statement of the British Constitution. It is a set of conventions and practices which politicians have more or less adhered to over time.

No one would argue that either constitutional model is perfect but perfection is not a yard stick with much use in the world of politics. Democratic politics is about satisficing, about how the clash of ideas and interests are resolved characteristically by compromise and a willingness to accept outcomes which you have opposed. It may not always get the best answer but will more often than not avoid the worst and critically provide for accountability by the governed of those that govern.

However, crucially, it can only function if there is an overall commitment to, acceptance of and and trust in, the system for securing governments and process of aggregating political ideas and interests. There needs to be an acceptance that the written or unwritten constitution provides a reliable, equable and fair skeleton holding the body politic together. Prime Ministers and Presidents may come and go and the style of governance may ebb and flow but the rules of the game sustain through time, creating continuity and trust in the process if not always happiness with every outcome.

In recent years, on both sides of the Atlantic, weaknesses in this model have come to light. Conventions and indeed laws are only as strong as the willingness of the political elite to follow them. Both here and in America politicians of all persuasions have been engaged in an escalating process of the weaponisation of their respective constitutional norms. This is a very dangerous path. It goes to the integrity of the skeleton without which trust in the process is undermined and commitment to compromise destroyed.

There is no doubt the process is more brazen and ubiquitous in the States, for the time being. President Trump has no understanding of the notion of the separation of powers, the role of an independent judiciary, a free press, the location of sovereignty, or in truth much at all. He is a uniquely awful individual who brings to everything he does a combination of ignorance and prejudice which when combined with the power of his office is truly frightening.

Whilst he has brought a terrible destructive force to the rejection of accepted ways of behaving in truth he is accelerating and deepening a process which has been in chain for some time. Furthermore, culpability for what is happening now is not confined to President Trump. Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader of the Senate has, with the backing of most of the rest of the GOP, sustained and supported his President in a manner which, if there is any justice, history will judge very harshly.

Back here in the UK it is the case that both sides in the Brexit debate have sailed close to the wind in terms of bending and stretching constitutional norms. However, the prorogation of Parliament for 5 weeks at a critical point in the Brexit process raises the the bar to a whole new level. It is a typical populist ploy to claim there needs to be progress and Parliamentarians are getting in the way of firm and clear government. It is also typical of despotic double speak that one claims to be bringing sovereignty back to Parliament by closing it.

If precedents are manipulated to do something they were not intended to they start to lose legitimacy. They then come to mean whatever the government of the day thinks they mean. This completely undermines their function of constraining political battles within civilised bounds. If the rules of the game don’t apply to one side they don’t apply to any. Political debate becomes ever more acrimonious. Effective government ceases, in the United States this has literally involved the shutdown of government 10 times in recent years. The spectacle of all this undermines the faith of the governed in the very process of democratic government and they seek assurance and stability elsewhere. And there is always someone willing to provide that stability, even if the assurance is short lived.

There is a complacency about the strength of democracy, which perhaps derives from the fact that most citizens in the US and UK have experienced nothing other. It may be this complacency has also infected our political elite. They feel they can manipulate the system and it will spring back. They can twist its arm tighter and tighter and it will never break. They need to be aware, however, that a broken convention will take a lot longer to repair than a broken arm, if it is repairable at all.

For a minority of Parliament Brexit is an idee fixe which must be achieved at all costs. They seem to have assessed the political, constitutional and economic cost they are risking as less than the benefits from a country free from Europe. If they get their way we must hope they are right, even if we are sure they are wrong, because if they are wrong they may have inflicted severe harm on democracy in the UK, which, given the current global context, may have implications around the world.

 

 

 

 

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Boris Johnson admits quick US trade deal will be a challenge | Financial Times

Boris Johnson on Sunday played down expectations of concluding a quick UK-US trade deal after his first meeting as British prime minister with Donald Trump, saying any agreement would require America to make compromises.

Although Mr Johnson said he would “love” to agree a deal “within a year”, he acknowledged there would be significant challenges to overcome if an agreement was going to be finalised rapidly after Britain leaves the EU.“I don’t think people realise quite how protectionist sometimes the US market can be, Mr Johnson told ITV after he held a breakfast meeting with Mr Trump at the G7 summit in Biarritz.

Source: Boris Johnson admits quick US trade deal will be a challenge | Financial Times

 

Northern Comment…

In very short order we have gone from PM Johnson thinking that no deal was “a million to one chance” to “touch and go”. The swift American trade deal has not survived first contact with the American President. The Prime Minister doesn’t, “… think people realise quite how protectionist sometimes the US market can be, …”   I think for “some people” we can safely replace Boris Johnson. To whom the constraints of power have come as a complete surprise. His model of negotiation is the traditional English approach to foreign languages. All he need do is speak louder and slower and they will understand what we need them to do. Any failure to understand what they have to do is down to European obduracy and unreasonableness.

Any challenge to his negotiation style is treason. Expect much more about collaborators, traitors and an attempt to pin the fiasco of Brexit on anyone other than himself and his pals in the European Research Group, the British equivalent of the Tea Party.

“Can do” is not a strategy. In Mr Johnson’s case it is not even a description. The real tragedy of the coming political dog fight is that it will undermine democracy in the eyes of those who are likely to lose out most from any form of Brexit. I struggle to imagine what special place in hell ought to exist for those politicians who know what a mess they are creating but plough on regardless.

 

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“Who do you think you are kidding Mr Johnson”

Once again Great Britain is threatened from across the Channel. After a protracted period of negotiation Prime Minister Theresa Chamberlain returned to the Commons with a piece of paper in her hand. Unfortunately she did not appreciate that the perfidious failure of the Europeans to accept our desire to leave and remain within the European Union would not satisfy the patriotic fervour of her colleagues who promptly shot her.

Things looked grim for Blighty but cometh the hour cometh… a new team to defend our shores. “Haves Army” a group of individuals led by those who had overcome the challenges and travails faced by their fellow citizens by applying their entrepreneurial  skills to carefully choosing their parents. Leading them, Boris Mainwaring, a man known for his serious attention to detail, integrity and probity but most of all his sophisticated negotiation skills.

Immediately the Captain eschewed  the defeatist thinking of the collaborators and adopted the “can do” attitude which had been lost with Empire. His central negotiating gambit was to play the Blazing Saddles opening. Who can forget the masterful strategy of the new black sheriff as he rode into town. The excited anticipation of the white towns-folk waiting to greet him turning first to disbelief, then anger, then threat.

Surrounded by a mob with pistols drawn the new sheriff calls their bluff. He draws his gun and points it at his own head. “Back off or the black guy gets it.” he calls. The crowd gasp. One of the townsfolk shouts “Put your guns down. He ain’t bluffing.” The crowd part as the sheriff retreats to the safety of his office, all the while pointing the gun at his head. One of the towns women-folk calls plaintively, “Is no one going to save that poor man?” The black sheriff/hostage enters his office and the crowd breaks up not even aware of what has just happened to them.

So Captain Boris tells those pesky Europeans to back-stop off or there will be no deal. To convince them he draws on his trusted ally, Lance Corporal Gove, tasking him to make sure there is plenty of ammunition for the suicide threat. Something Corporal Gove doesn’t need to be asked twice. Off he goes around the country to ports and industries repeating the carefully thought through no deal strategy of “Don’t panic! Don’t panic!”

Keeping his head down with self-deprecating promotion, Private Rees-Walker, promotes a strategy for the nation that will take it forward to the 1850’s when serious wealth could be generated and the lower orders knew their place.

What could go wrong? Although I think I do hear sotto voce from somewhere in the political ether the pithy statement of coherent opposition “We’re doomed, we’re all doomed!”