Political prediction is almost always a hope of the heart propelled by a wishful intellect. However…

I hardly dare say it but it does look as if the wheels are finally coming off the clown car which is the Trump administration. Naturally at this point in any predictive article it is important to put the Wilsonian disclaimer in that “a week is a long time in politics” and we are a good four months from 3 November when Americans go to the polls.

When they do go they will not just be judging the performance of their President they will also be voting for 35 seats in the Senate, where the Republicans currently have a six seat majority, and all 435 members of the House of Representatives where the Democrats have a 15 seat majority.

At the moment Mr Biden has a double digit poll lead. Even his closest supporters would be hard pressed to put this down to energetic, charismatic, high profile campaigning. 

What Mr Biden does have on his side is President Trump and an administration which increasingly lacks competence and credibility. An administration long on loyalty but short on ability. Better yet even the long position seems to be starting to crack.

A large number of Americans have been giving President Trump the benefit of the doubt. I have no doubt that, for a very tiny fraction of Americans, the spiteful and juvenile stream of tweets; the coarse behaviour and articulation of clearly racist and misogynist views were welcomed. For a much larger number however, I suspect there was a feeling this was a price worth paying to shake up the elite and drain the swamp. They had been ignored for so long that something radically different was needed. Well they certainly got that.

Having said this it became ever more difficult to understand why the President’s increasingly unconstitutional and bizarre behaviour seemed to come at no cost to his support. People appeared to be willing to accommodate ever more outrageous attacks on the very foundations of the US constitution. 

The separation of powers, the independence of the judiciary, the chain of command, respect for the law, threats to a free press, abuse of office for personal gain, nepotism. As they occurred individually and even as they accumulated they did not lead to the level of public outrage that many thought appropriate and inevitable. However, over the years they have built up a picture which people simply did not focus on when the economy was booming and unemployment was falling to record low levels.

But now, Covid-19 (C-19) has burst the bubble of the Trump narrative. His bluster and incompetence have been revealed for what they are.  

The shotgun the President took early on in his Administration to health care was always pointed at his foot. Having shot off one foot in the mid-terms he carefully took aim at this issue again on the other foot! 

His denial of C-19, his failure to act early, his stupid musings on how to cure it with disinfectant, his refusal to model appropriate social distancing practices, his rush to reopen the economy, prioritising re-election over American lives, all reveal the essence of the man. An incompetent narcissist, with the attention span of a goldfish and IQ to match.  Whilst this has been visible to some for a long time it is now being brought home to all Americans in the most cruel manner.

This awakening is set to lead to a re-evaluation of much of the past five years. The doubt is over. He really is what he appears to be. What is more that re-evaluation may not simply focus on the President. The Republican party and its members of the Senate and House; the cast of venal  incompetents, extreme loyalists and yes men that make up his cabinet, and the upper echelons of the Federal bureaucracy appointed by Trump may all feel the growing wrath of the American people. 

It is clear some of his “team” are beginning to see this. Members of his own party, startled by polling numbers, are starting to put their head above the parapet. Senator John Thune has urged the President to focus on an electoral strategy which, “deals with substance and policy…”  and is presented in a different “tone”. Good luck with that one Senator.

What 4 years have shown is the complete lack of ability of this President. The esteem of the nation in the eyes of its allies is lower than it has ever been. Its  foreign policy a combination of rhetorical triumphs with practical failure, see North Korea and the Middle East. A craven response to dictators, see Russia and its interest in Ukraine, and Turkey and its interests in Syria. A trade “policy” the theoretical idiocy of which is only exceeded by its incompetent implementation. A legislative record, the golden star of which was a tax cut focussed clearly on the 1%.

If the election was tomorrow it is very likely there would be a Democratic landslide. The Republicans must be praying for a miracle because there is nothing on the horizon set to help. The monumental mishandling of the virus means America is now sitting on an epidemic time bomb set to overwhelm the medical services of the richest country in the world. The graph below shows the surging infection numbers. This will eventually force an effective lockdown and an avoidable protraction of the damage to the economy. 

Covid-19 Confirmed Cases. Source: The New York Times

Even if the disease were to disappear tomorrow the impact has been devastating. The virus has already taken more American lives than the wars in  Korea and Vietnam combined (94k), and more than the First World War (116k).  If the current level of incompetence is not addressed quickly and radically it is not inconceivable the final death toll could compete with America’s previous worst, the 650k killed in the Civil War. Of course the Civil War lasted four years, C-19 has killed more than 125k in four months.

Whilst all of this grim reality provides hope President Trump will be gone in 7 months time it also generates fear. It is certain he will not go quietly. A totally compliant Attorney General who confuses his role with that of defence counsel to the President, provides a powerful tool for skewing the election process. Voter suppression is an industry in some Republican States and is set to go into overdrive. Legal attacks on Nixonian type “enemies” is more than a risk, and Joe Biden has already been in the crosshairs. 

Worse, some other form of domestic of foreign crisis may be manufactured. The difficulty with this, for Trump, is that the American people are increasingly  unlikely to be reassured any such crisis will best be handled with him as President.

Trump’s aggressive, vindictive nature is not going to be a pretty sight as it becomes more apparent he is going to lose. We are in for a very rough few months with the US constitution and nation strained to the absolute limit.

Mr Biden’s best efforts may not win the election but there is every chance Donald Trump will lose it and lose it spectacularly. Fingers crossed, for if he does not lose and lose clearly, the prospect for the States is definitely not United.