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Which McConnell?

Yesterday the leader of the Republicans in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, provided a startling example of decisive leadership in the Impeachment trial of Donald J Trump. He made clear that all charges have been proven so obviously he had to vote to find him… not guilty!

Like much in the Impeachment trial nothing was what it seemed to be. The lawyers for the defence did their best to secure an indictment. The jury were also the judges and, uniquely in this Impeachment, the victims. Having voted on and secured a bipartisan majority in favour of the constitutionality of the Impeachment procedure, most of the GOP of law and order, acquitted the accused on the grounds that the procedure was unconstitutional. It was trial in Wonderland.

But one has to wonder what “hare and hounds” strategy Mitch McConnells thinks he is pursuing? He starts by voting against Impeachment. “Hurrah!” shout 43 Republican Senators and 74m Trump voters. “Boo!” shout 50 Democratic and 7 Republican Senators, and 81m Biden voters.

But no sooner has he voted to prevent Trump’s indictment than he gets up, decries the appalling acts of mob violence on 6 January and is crystal clear about the cause: “There is no question that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of that day.”

“What!” shout 99 Senators and 155m voters?

Clearly this is an attempt by Senator McConnell to support Joe Biden’s calls for unity. In the twinkling of an eye he unites both bases and both parties representatives against him.

What is he thinking?

I struggle with this given he is one of the most experienced senators in Congress having been first elected in 1984 and then chosen as leader of the Republicans in the Senate in 2004. He must have a clear eyed view of what he wants to achieve, but what is it. Is he for or against Trump?

Could it be that after 4 years of unqualified support for the worst president in American history, and that is not a low bar, he has seen the light and recognises the threat Donald J Trump represents to US democracy? Have the scales dropped from his eyes? Is he now a convert to bi-partisan unity?

Or, alternatively, does he have some Machiavellian plan to steal the base?

If the latter he must be playing a long game. He cannot think the joy of the acquittal experienced by the Trump base will override their anger at his attack on their hero! If those storming the Capitol are anything to go by that judgement call would look doubtful.

But maybe he has taken a more sophisticated view about the Trump base and its stability. Perhaps he thinks, whatever the hype of the moment, Trump is likely to be a decreasing force in American politics. One which might be loud on the fringe but unlikely to gain centre stage again.

No longer with access to the most powerful pulpit in the world, nor able to use social media the ex-presidents voice will never be what he was as president. There will be no publicly funded PR machine making sense of, and reinforcing, what he says. Indeed he may find himself having to go to court to answer questions on accusations of sexual assault, business and taxation matters, campaign funding offences and much more.

As a defendant he will have to plead the 5th if he wants to stay out of prison. He will also have to take care of what he says outside of the courtroom if he wants to avoid contempt charges. But being respectfully silent is not his strong suit.

As these cases grind along they will feed deep state conspiracy theories amongst his base, base supporters but for many ordinary Republicans the drip, drip on his credibility will start to wear it down.

As more and more evidence comes to light about the actions of those invading the Capitol, and the precise role of Mr Trump, that too is unlikely to strengthen his position. Whilst a recent poll showed a disturbing 55% of Republicans in favour of violence to defend the American way of life, it also confirmed that 43% were opposed to the use of violence for that purpose. So a lot of Mr Trump’s base may well feel increasingly uncomfortable if they feel his leadership is promoting violence.

But even the base, base may start to have doubts. As insurrectionists come to trial and use Mr Trump as part of their defence and perhaps call him as witness to their patriotism, will he turn up in court to defend them under oath? Will he use some of his war chest to fund their defence? You only have to write it down to know it wont happen.

If he does refuse to support them, or denies their claims they were doing his bidding will he become part of the deep state conspiracy? That would be a delicious irony but history is rarely that kind.

How he uses his quarter of a billion dollar war chest may also start to ring alarm bells. Will he fund the defence costs of any of the invaders? No. Will he fund pimarying? Maybe. Will he fund the mid-term campaigns of those who flatter him most? Maybe. Will he fund the 2024 campaigns of those who go large and long on flatter? Maybe.

But, Mr Trump is notoriously difficult to get cash out of, ask his lawyers. The multi-billionaire Donald J Trump did not make the top 35 list of self funding candidates which goes down to a total of $1m of own funds.

Mitch McConnell is the latest of an increasingly partisan line of leaders of the Republicans in the Senate. It would be a mistake to assume he has changed his spot in that regard. He is also one of the most wily and politically savvy and it would be an even bigger mistake to think that has changed. He may be presenting a Janus faced strategy to the world but it is difficult to not think he sees Trump as a dying star. One which may explode rather than fade but one whose time is limited.

The mid-term are only 23 months away, however, a week is a long time in politics and Senator McConnell has lived through a lot of them. He may well have judged he will be able to pull the majority of Republican supporters away from Mr Trump. Those who do not support insurrection.

However, he will still have to figure out how to address the base, base which Mr Trump has fired up. Their actions are a stain on American democracy incited by Mr Trump who claims he is now the Republican party. His response to Senator McConnell’s comments will not be judged to pour oil on troubled waters. Going forward the good Senator may well need eyes in the back of his head.

The Republicans are in a hole and as yet no sign they have stopped digging.

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The Patriot Party of “you know who”

A bit like Lord Voldemort there is a temptation not to mention the name of “you know who” now that he is no longer in office. However he continues to tease his followers with the proposals about setting up a Patriot Party.

If he were to do this it will be interesting to see who wants to join. Hard line supporters like The Proud Boys have recently decried “you know who” as “A Total Failure”. I guess his brave leadership from the Oval Office and the quick disavowal of the violence when legal jeopardy threatened him personally probably alienated quite a few of the extreme right insurgents.

They will have noticed a flood of pardons emanating from the White House but probably felt let down when there were none for them.

Maybe there are others, less extreme, who never signed up to insurrection but think “you know who” was doing a great job and it would be good if he could come back. They might well be keen to sign up to a new party. If they do however they may also be well advised to check the small print of the membership T’s&C’s.

Much like the money raised for the legal battle to prevent the stealing of the vote it is likely that the vast bulk ($250m) of the cash will go into a black hole that reappears somehow in the pocket of “you know who”.

Like his University, the new Party for Patriots will probably deliver the same quality product which resulted in a $25m settlement when students claimed they had been duped by claims about what the University would provide.

Mitch McConnell must be watching all this closely in his assessment of whether action to support the impeachment would lance the boil which “you know who” has become on the fundament of the Republican Party. If he fails to move then a new party may be formed which attracts voters away from the GOP, causing a split that would make presidential success in 2024 tantamount to impossible.

As more and more comes out about those who attacked the Capitol, it is quite possible a substantial amount of support will drain away from “you know who” and those GOP members that supported him.

There is a saying that you should never wrestle with a pig because you both get dirty but the pig likes it. Along similar lines you should never get too close to a pig either because the smell lingers. The Republicans don’t seem to have appreciated this.

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Russia jails Alexei Navalny for 30 days | Financial Times

Two EU countries call for bloc to impose sanctions after poisoned activist is detained at Moscow airport

Source: Russia jails Alexei Navalny for 30 days | Financial Times

 

Northern Comment – Would Russia have done this if Washington were not in lockdown? On the positive side it indicates a real fear of the popularity of Navalny and his ability to mobilise opposition.

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Trump’s Base Shrinking?

The latest Pew Research poll of electors, conducted after the attack on the Capitol, confirms a significantly deteriorating and negative view of president Trump post the election as compared to a stable and positive view of Joe Biden. Those that view Joe Biden’s conduct since the election as “excellent” or “good” have increased from 62% to 64%, whilst those that view his conduct as “only fair” or “poor” have reduced from 37% to 35%.

The numbers for the President however have moved significantly against him, from 31% rating his conduct as “good” or “excellent” to 23%. Whilst those rating his performance as “poor” have increased by 8%.

Looking specifically at the issue of responsibility for the attack on the Capitol, 75% of all voters felt he had “a lot” or “some” responsibility for the violence. Further, even amongst Republicans and those that lean Republican, a majority (52%) felt he had “a lot’ or “some” responsibility.

It is of course true this leaves a very significant minority (46%) of Republican supporters reporting the president as having no responsibility for the actions on the Capitol. So clearly there are large numbers of dedicated Trump supporters who remain faithful. However, these figures show a substantial division within the GOP, one which has the potential to become a major rift. One which, further actions of a very angry and often irrational president, may increase.

All of this suggests it is becoming increasingly urgent for the Republican party leadership to decide whether they want to risk sinking with Donald Trump or swimming away from him. To date they have been frightened because of his base. As evidence emerges his base might be shrinking the “courage” to abandon him may grow.

The problem is that as the base shrinks it becomes more and more concentrated in and represented by a dangerous cocktail of extremists. People whose actions the president has legitimated and encouraged over 4 years. The clearer their extremism becomes the more difficult it will be for the many rank and file Republicans to align with them.

President Trump and the GOP have unleashed a tiger and they are now stuck holding its tail. Its actions may well revert to them and indeed it may end up devouring the party which released it. Vice President Pence and Lyndsey Graham have both felt its hot breath on their neck.

It will take Joe Biden a long while to get that genie back in its bottle and starve it of the wider despair and distrust that decades of political neglect have created amongst the vast majority of Americans.

Joe Biden won the election. It is increasingly clear he is winning the transition. His biggest challenge is to create a winning presidency. A presidency which unites the vast majority of Americans behind policies which provide tangible hope for the future over the divisive despair of the past.

This task is daunting as it means having to address the tectonic plates of economic inequality which structure so many of the problems of the United States. All of those interested in the future of democracy must wish him well and support him.