Corona Virus

To date the Prime Minister has struck what feels like a sensible balance between recognising the seriousness of Covd-19 and reassuring people that the UK is in the best possible position to deal with the problem. Certainly he is a shining example of leadership when compared with his opposite number in the United States. It is interesting, in a year when health care was already a major election issue in the US, how the benefits of a free-at-the-point-of-use National Health Service are thrown in to sharp relief when a public health emergency occurs. 

One has to have sympathy with political leaders at the moment. We are all beginning to learn about the complexity of responding to a pandemic which seems to be highly contagious. Just adapting to the speed of change is itself a challenge with the infection rate roughly doubling every 6 days.

At the moment much is made by the PM about how the government is following the advice of the experts.  whenever he makes a statement to the nation about the disease he is flanked by the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Advisor. He is always careful to preface his words with a statement about how the government is being guided by the science.

Clearly the government must take account of the science. As so often President Trump is helpfully providing an excellent object lesson in what happens when you develop policy in a science free zone.

Having said this however, the policy response has to balance a whole host of factors which do not simply drop out of the epidemiological science. There are alternative strategies which might be adopted which all come with their own risks. Ultimately it is the politicians who decide what the policy response is and whilst I have real sympathy for them they cannot hide behind their advisors. It may be that the PM speaks so frequently about following the science because he thinks it will be reassuring to the public. And it is, however he should not think it is a get out of jail free card if the strategy, which seems markedly different to that being adopted in other places, proves to be wrong.

The government Corona Virus Action Plan seems all very sensible with a reassuring institutional infrastructure to provide guidance and leadership in managing the national response. There is also clear advice about what infected individuals need to do, how the virus is spreading and how the government is responding. Transparency and consistent messaging is vital in maintaining public confidence.

There is a growing chorus of concern however that the government are not taking drastic enough action quickly enough. It has been suggested that part of the strategy is to try to secure herd immunity as soon as possible. Without a vaccine this is likely to result in a  high level of mortality amongst older people. The pressure, from dissenting voices, or the rational tipping point for some version of lock down seems to be approaching fast. This weekend there are announcements about new legislation early next week that will impact everyone. 

One of the voices calling for early and drastic action is Tomas Pueyo. He has produced an article, “Corona virus: Why you must act now“, illustrated with a series of graphs showing the progression of the disease in different countries and what appear to be the most effective strategies to contain or delay the spread of the virus. Chart 7 is probably the most shocking giving some indication of the scale of the actual incidence of the virus as opposed to just the numbers of those who have died or tested positive. It shows that the scale of infection is quickly many times greater than the latter two figures might suggest.

I have never heard of this person, but he has been referenced quite widely including by Edward Luce, an excellent opinion writer in the Financial Times. I have checked some of the numbers he quotes with other reputable sources and they seem to be consistent. It is a sobering read. I suspect its urgent tone is about to be reflected in a gear change in the UK’s response. I suspect we are all about to lose a month or more of our social lives. Given the mortality rate amongst older people it is a small price to pay to keep our grand parents and older parents alive.

Finally, I have read a fair amount about this virus and as yet have heard no mention of raging diarrhea  as being one of the symptoms or outcomes. Of course the sale of toilet rolls may actually be a good proxy measure for the level of fear the virus is generating.

 

Covid 19 and Public Debt

The Chancellor has just embarked on a huge spending spree in infrastructure investments. His argument being this is possible because interest rates are at historically low levels. Of course this has been the case for the past ten years. Since March 2009 the Bank of England’s base rate has been at or below 0.5%, with one period at 0.75% starting in August 2018 through to when the rate was cut to 0.25% yesterday.

This compares with rates which back in July 1998 were set at 7.5%. This rate drifted down over the subsequent years to 3.5% in July 2003, then slowly rising to 5.75% in 2007.

So for the whole period of the conservative government rates have been historically low. When inflation is taken into account the cost of borrowing for government has been pretty close to and at some points below zero, as it has in many other Western economies.

Over the period of Austerity many economists argued that borrowing to fund investment in infrastructure following the financial crash of 2008 would be a sensible. Counter cyclical investment of this sort would create new, real assets and not simply inflate the values of existing ones which the whole process of quantitative easing did.

But no, we were told this was not sensible. The public finance had to be put in order and the size of the state reduced to what we could afford. This refrain was repeated up to the last election where the Labour Party’s proposals were dismissed as the old “tax and spend” model lacking a prudent approach to public finances and debt.

Well, blow me, it’s suddenly ok. I don’t pretend to understand economics but I do bull***t.

However we should not be churlish but rather rejoice when a sinner sees the light. With all the zeal of a convert the government have gone beyond “tax and spend” to “spend and spend “. Not just announcing huge increases in borrowing but also increases in revenue expenditure, “whatever it takes” to support the NHS through the Covid-19. Further, they have announced a series of tax reductions to support business.

This is all, genuinely commendable. The real test of this government however will come when the impact of Covid-19 and subsequent exit from one of the three largest trading blocks in the world start impacting on the real economy. Recession is a real possibility and then tax receipts will fall like a stone. How they choose to balance the books then will be a genuine test of their commitment to “levelling up” the economy.

US voters turn their backs on female candidates | Financial Times

US voters turn their backs on female candidatesDemocratic primaries started with a record number of women, but now nearly all have dropped outElizabeth Warren (above) is one of the two women left in the race to run for the US presidency, but both have little chance of winning the nomination © Brian Snyder/ReutersShare on Twitter (opens new window)Share on Facebook (opens new window)Share on LinkedIn (opens new window)ShareSaveCourtney Weaver in Washington YESTERDAYPrint this page253Ahead of the North Carolina primary, Mellicent Blythe was torn between two candidates: Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts senator, and Amy Klobuchar, her Minnesota colleague.Yet when she came to cast her ballot on Tuesday, Ms Blythe, a social worker in Durham, North Carolina, found herself voting for the former vice-president Joe Biden: “I feel hypocritical because I did what I get frustrated with other people doing. I didn’t vote for Warren, because I was petrified she was going to lose out to [Bernie] Sanders and then Sanders would lose out to [President Donald] Trump.”

Source: US voters turn their backs on female candidates | Financial Times

 

Northern Comment – Elizabeth Warren is by far the most able candidate, who combines sharp intellect with genuine progressive values. It is a real shame that she did not get through to challenge President Trump. The contrast in terms of ability, values, morality, understanding of the mores of a democratic system, and the American constitution could not be greater. Elizabeth Warren has them President Trump does not.

I can however sympathise with voters wrestling with the question: who will beat Donald Trump, not who will be the best President. Whether these two issues are distinct is a moot point but you can understand why they apply in this election more than any other in modern American history.

Now it is Biden versus Sanders. In a time which demands radical change my preference would be Bernie Sanders. It is, in my view, perfectly reasonable the supporters of the two candidates should work as hard as they can now to get their choice the nomination.

But as soon as a decision is arrived at, the losing candidate must throw all his support behind the successful candidate. He must actively campaign to ensure all his supporters vote for the person running against Trump. Either of the candidates, indeed any of those that entered the race and dropped out would be preferable to President Trump. He is an existential threat, not just to US democracy, but to democracy around the world.

Nothing is more important that preventing Trump gaining 4 more years.

 

The Joint Stock Company

If you want to understand more about how India became part of the British Empire you should read William Dalrymple’s “The Anarchy”.  The book is a panoramic survey of the diplomatic intrigues, rampant duplicity and naked aggression used to divide and conquer the Mughal Emperor’s power and that of the various Mughal principalities.

My reason for reading this book was a desire to know more about the East India Company (EIC) and particularly whether, as one of the first joint stock companies, it provided lessons for current corporate governance issues. What shocked me was the extent to which the creation of the British Empire in India was in fact the work of the EIC.  “The Anarchy” charts the actions of the EIC from its creation in 1599 to its effective nationalisation in  1859. In its two and a half centuries the company went from an organisation negotiating commercial privileges with Mughal princes to a colonial power with its own navy and a security force (army) of 200,000 troops, more than the British army of the time.

I had mistakenly assumed the British State had opened up India to trade, supporting  and defending private sector organisations like the EIC. Clive of India I took to be a member of the British army who paved the way for British commerce. Someone who was Knighted for his service to the Crown. Just shows how wrong you can be.  In fact Clive was always an employee of the EIC and was rewarded for his services with an enormous fortune looted (a term originating in India, which I use advisedly, meaning “theft”) from the Indian nations making him one of the richest men in Europe.

Whilst I never bought into the imperial story of Britain bringing civilisation to the Indian sub-continent I had never appreciated how thoroughly the rampant exploitation of the vast area was done by the private enterprise of the EIC. A company which many members of the British parliament had substantial shareholdings in. Explaining, perhaps, a certain reticence when it came to considering stories of brutality as highly profitable commercial transactions were transformed into outright theft. Illustrative of the rapine behaviour is the fact that Powis Castle, the home of Clive’s son, contains the Clive Museum which has the largest collection in one place of Mughal artefacts from India. Larger even than that in the National Museum in Dehli.

There is no doubt the battle for supremacy in India was a physically demanding and dangerous business. Dalrymple’s book provides an even handed description of acts of bravery and cowardice, loyalty and treachery, honour and deceit on both sides of the battle. The European battle tactics, genuine bravery, modern cannons and pure luck all played a part in the ultimate success of the EIC. But victory transformed highly profitable trade to outright pillage. This in turn led to the degradation of the existing state and at times major famine. Unbound avarice with little thought for the future eventually undermined the viability of the EIC. As profits declined moral outrage grew oddly enough.

Putting aside belated outrage what lessons are there from the history of the EIC for today. Clearly one is about effective regulatory oversight. If you rely on the moral character of shareholders to curtail the drift from entrepreneurial energy through commercial sharp practice to sharp knifed theft then you need to hope that the returns remain modest. NINJA loans in the US, in the first years of the 21st Century were little short of outright theft. When billions of pounds are at stake peoples morals flex and bend and, in the absence of independent challenge, break.

Another lesson is the danger of scale posed by private companies. As the exploitation of India grew more and more aggressive, in every sense, the returns of the EIC grew in lock-step providing the resources in dividends and outright bribes to suppress the demands for closer parliamentary oversight. By the late 18th Century the EIC generated almost half of Britains trade, it had become “too big to fail”.

It was at this point that the risks of unregulated exploitation started to crystallise. In 1772 large debts, increasing military expenditures and declining revenues from over-exploited regions meant the company was running out of cash. A dividend maintained at 12.5% probably did not help matters. In July of that year the Directors applied to the Bank of England for a loan of £400k, a fortnight later they needed another £300k by August they needed another £1m. In total, close to £200m in todays money. Inevitably these unprecedented requests for cash raised questions as to how a company generating so much wealth for its employees could go bust or as Mr Dalrymple puts it, “…the contrast between the bankruptcy of the Company and the vast riches of its employees was too stark not to be investigated.” Similar to the Parliamentary questions concerning the remuneration of Carllion Directors after they went bust building the Royal Liverpool Hospital, for example.

The Government did investigate and indeed Clive was brought to the House to defend himself which he did with vigour. And the man who “earned” something in excess of £234k (£260m in todays money) in 16 years in India, apparently without laughing, said he was, “… astonished by my own moderation.” In the end Parliament found in favour of Clive, clearing his name by a vote of 155 to 95.

This is a really well written book which compels attention and provides real insights into the values and attitudes of the time, good and bad. It is a powerful testimony to the power of the financial innovation which is the joint stock company, and what it could achieve. It speaks to the importance of effective corporate governance but also for effective external regulation. It confirms that whilst shareholder value is a necessary component of corporate purpose, on its own it is far from sufficient.

The parallels with many of the current debates around large corporations are clear. Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it. This book provides lessons our politicians would do well to learn. I wish I was optimistic they would.