Author: davidajepson

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Trump – Busted Flush?

Mitch McConnell clearly cannot decide whether Trump remains the key mobiliser of Republican support or has overplayed his hand with the incitement of the Capitol insurrection. Earlier in the week sources close to the leader of the Senate claimed he was minded to hear the arguments about Trump’s role in the incompetent insurrection. Now he confirms there will be no time for this to be considered in the Senate prior to the inauguration of Joe Biden.

When it was first intimated that Senator McConnell was distancing himself from president Trump there were few on planet earth thought he had emerged from a deep sleep unruffled by questions of principle and awoken to the danger the president represented to the constitution. Those who would accuse him of principle are few and far between.

Long before Donald Trump was anywhere near the presidency Senator McConnell was driving a partisan tank through convention after convention, blocking effective government and opposing any initiative of the Democratic president. This culminated in, what at the time appeared to be an outrageous abuse of process, the blocking of president Obama’s nominations to the Supreme Court for the whole of the last year of his administration.

So what we can expect from Senator McConnell is careful political calculation and at the moment he does not appear to be sure which way to jump. The attack on the Capitol threw all previous calculations into confusion.

The suggestions he may be sympathetic toward impeachment may have been partly to test the waters with Republican opinion outside Washington and partly to strengthen his hand in negotiations to bring some discipline to president Trump’s departure. It must be clear, if the incompetent insurrection did not destroy Trump’s power base it certainly weakened his authority.

It must be becoming clear that Trump has the potential to become a long term liability for the Republican party. He may always have a cult following of true believers. Those who think ANTIFA and BLM were responsible for the invasion of the Capitol. One has to believe they do not constitute a majority of the Republican party.

As things go from bad to worse for Trump he becomes an ever loser cannon. At some point Mitch McConnell has to jump. He has to decide if Trump is now, or soon will be, a busted flush. If he leaves it too late he may find even Republican voters feel he has liability for whatever outrageous thing Trump the president, or the citizen, does next.

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McConnell Privately Backs Impeachment as House Moves to Charge Trump – The New York Times

 

Northern Comment – If reporting in the NYT is accurate Mitch McConnell may have come to the conclusion Donald Trump is going to become more of a liability than an asset as he leaves office. He may have been looking at recent survey information that indicate even a significant number of Republicans are very unhappy with what happened at the Capitol.

As more film becomes available and more details of the desecration of the building emerge the picture of dedicated patriots saving democracy is likely dissolve into a picture uncouth thugs on a rampage of mindless violence. This is set to move more main line Republicans away from Trump.

It is also very likely, further, uncomfortable information will come to light as the “patriots”, charged with a range of offences up to and including insurrection come to court and their views and lifestyles are presented to public view. It is unlikely the majority of Republicans would want to be seen as having much in common with the putative stars of the incompetent insurrection.

Horned hats, wanton damage to property, threats of physical harm to law offices and lynching of legislators are not set to to play well with the party of law and order. Defecting and urinating in the Capitol building can only be seen as legitimate acts of political dissent amongst a minority of the GOP one hopes.

President Trump clearly never supported democracy but neither did he understand it. It delivers enormous power into the hands of an individual in an instant. Power which extends far beyond the formal levers of power of office. However, that, state, power is extinguished in an instant and the broader halo of power follows closely behind.

There has been much concern citizen Trump would wield an immense amount of power once he leaves office. It seems the second most powerful man in the US at the moment thinks that may not be the case. Let’s hope he is right.

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Will the Republican Senate Support Impeachment?

Based on Impeachment 0.1 one would think support in the Senate would not be forthcoming. Clearly there are still many within the Senate who support the President, whether out of misplaced loyalty or misplaced fear is unclear.

That loyalty is misplaced is obvious if it is anticipated that it will be reciprocated. Time and again President Trump has been happy to throw the most loyal of colleagues under the bus if it suited his purpose or indeed whim. But is fear misplaced?

That depends on the extent to which you feel Trump’s actions in the transition have accelerated what would inevitably have been a rapid diminution of power as he leaves office. His baseless claims of election fraud and incompetent insurrection have significantly reduced his stature and support. Members of the GOP need to consider how far this has impacted regular Republican voters. It is almost certain Trump could become the leader of a devoted and substantial group of supporters. But probably not an election winning, following.

If the deep state is anyone who fails to support unquestioningly Donald Trump it now includes Lindsey Graham, Mike Pence and the PGA of America! At this rate their will be more in the deep state than in the… er shallow state! The more that are moved into that category, surely, the less credibility it has for conspiracy theorists.

For four years the GOP has sustained president Trump in office despite him being a clear and present danger to the constitution of the United States. His egregious behaviour will only be properly evaluated with the fullness of a historical perspective but I am willing to bet he and those that supported him will not be looked on favourably.

The incompetent insurrection and the berating of Lindsey Graham as he passed through the airport are tastes of what it is like when you put your faith in a demagogue. You conjure up forces which it is not so easy to hold in check. Fortunately, Trump’s capacity for harm is mitigated to some extent by his self assured incompetence.

The GOP have much to answer for and certain members ought to be held personally responsible for their role in the events of 6 January. In the full knowledge of what their flat earth complaints about the election had triggered they continued to raise objections they knew full well to be baseless. Sadly, I fear their guilt will be lost as the page of history is quickly turned.

But if they could muster enough Senators with some semblance of patriotic commitment the GOP leadership must wonder whether it would make sense to take Trump out of the equation for the 2024 election once and for all. If he runs it is more than likely he will split the Republican vote and give the White House back to Joe Biden.

On the other hand they may feel that Trump will self destruct if left to himself. Let’s hope so. It is almost certain citizen Donald Trump will continue to be Joe Biden’s best recruiting sergeant and quite likely secure the 2014 election for him.

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Trump fails to make the Cut

After spending four years laying waste to the constitutional, ethical and moral standards of American government; undermining the nations global standing; denigrating democracy; promoting insurrection, there is no sign that President Trump understands much less feels responsibility or guilt for the havoc he has wrought.

Today however comes news which is certain to penetrate the carapace of Trumpland indifference. Reuters report the PGA of America have terminated their agreement with the Trump National Golf Club to host the 2022 PGA Championship. They fear such a connection would tarnish the image of the PGA of America.

There is one area of laser like focus in the Trump universe – money. This will hurt Trump where he feels it most, in his pocket. His financial exposure was already looking tricky with significant debt due to be repaid in the not too distant future. A future he thought his Presidential status would protect him from.

It is very unlikely this will be the only commercial reversal the incompetent insurrectionist will experience over coming months. As he steps out of the presidency he steps into a a whole load of heartache with less and less support.

If the front nine were the presidency and the back nine the transition we can safely say he has lost both. Not because of bad weather, bent clubs or square balls. Just pure and simple self confident incompetence. Losing the election was always bad news for Trump given the sharks circling outside of the White House. Losing the transition is like pouring a pint of blood into the water before diving in. It could not be happening to a better person.