Author: davidajepson

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The limits of democracy

My last blog mentioned Ben Rhodes’ book After the Fall. In that, Mr Rhodes recounts a conversation he had with Alexey Navalny about the importance of America as a positive example of democracy. He quotes Mr Navalny as saying “Here’s why Trump is a tragedy for us. All my literature is based on the idea that free elections are a system where a better guy becomes higher and a worse guy becomes lower. And now what is the example? At the high point of this democracy there is someone corrupted.” Whilst I have nothing but admiration for Mr Navalny I feel his view of the benefit of democracy sets the bar too high.

Democracy does not guarantee the best governments. What it does do is limit the power of the worst through the operation of an independent judiciary, a free press and a host of other checks and balances which distribute rather than concentrate power. It also provides a route to getting rid of really bad leaders without recourse to violence.

US democracy was tested by the Trump presidency, and, like many other would-be tyrants he attacked the institutions that limited his power. Ultimately, however, he was voted out of office. Messy? Maybe, but effective.

Trump’s attempt to remain in power was not successful because enough people across the US political system, including his own vice President and, critically, the military, remained loyal to the office of president as opposed to its holder. Loyal to the fundamental foundation of the democratic process.

Clearly, the challenge to American democracy continues and Trump threatens to run again in 2024 and there are a lot of people who would vote for him. His chances would be much reduced, however, if a key part of the political political system in the US said what they think about him.

In a two party democracy the role of the opposition is critical and GOP has a huge burden of responsibility going forward. Their failure to make clear allegations about electoral fraud have no evidence to support them, and that the claim the election was stolen is a dangerous lie, creates enormous political risk. It means millions of US citizens will have their trust in democracy undermined. They will believe there is a credible case for Trump having been cheated of the presidency.

GOP members were alongside Democrats under the tables on 6 January and very happy to be taken to a safe location. In a country with a very well armed population, any undermining of the legitimacy of the process whereby candidates secure power is a high stakes game. If people do not accept the result of an open and free democratic process you have got to worry about what they put in its place.

Mr Navalny may not be clear on the limits of democracy, however, I am certain he is crystal clear on the limits of its absence. Democracy may only be the least worst political system but in the messy world of politics that means practically it is the best. The Republicans would do well to reflect on this.

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Nation Building Begins At Home

Earlier this year in an interview with the Washington Post about his recent book, “After the Fall” Ben Rhodes, National Security Advisor under President Obama, outlined what he felt was the first and overarching point of the work – “… we need to get our own democracy in order, […] the democratic example that America is setting and the way that that ripples out around the world is the most consequential thing, and people in foreign policy can lose sight of that.”

His words carry a particular poignancy in the aftermath of the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle. Twenty years commitment, two trillion dollars of treasure and the blood of two and a half thousand US troops, and the net result? A Taliban led government within days of the last US evacuation. It is unsurprising many Americans are asking, “what was it all for?”

There are certainly lessons to be learned about how one supports a nation with the transition to democracy. Probably the strongest being to stamp down hard on corruption particularly amongst the political elite you have installed and sustain but also with the domestic organisations tasked to assist the nation being helped.

It is almost certainly the case the Afghan army collapsed as quickly as it did because their material support was depleted by corrupt diversion of resources, and their morale undermined by knowledge their political and military masters were doing this to them. There is a succinct outline of this in the ever insightful FT podcast “The Rachman Review“.

The war on terror sparked by the murderous attack on the twin towers was always long on rhetoric and short on strategy. Mission creep turned into mission sprint, but then degraded into the marathon crawl of a forever war. When he came into office Biden did not have a good option. It could be said he played a bad hand badly, however, it is very difficult to see how there was ever going to be a good outcome.

It remains to be seen what it does to his poll ratings in the longer term. Whilst currently the population is smarting at the national humiliation there has long been a solid demand to get out of Afghanistan. As the scenes in the airport fade the performance of the economy will, as so often, prove to be the bellwether of political support.

Whether you see the promotion of democracy as the cynical attempt to extend US power around the globe, or a principled attempt to extend the freedoms it promises to the oppressed, its execution is fundamentally, if not fatally undermined, if it is not working back home.

A society which is convulsed with racism; which locks up a greater proportion of its population than any other on earth; where hundreds of thousands live below the poverty line; where the rule of law is bent to create Guantanamo no law zones; where mass shootings are common place; where the Seat of the Legislature can be invaded and temporarily taken over; its difficult to present this as a City on a Hill.

To act as a beacon the US needs to present a model of a way forward. A guide to a better way of organising things for the benefit of all. At the moment the beacon is diminished with implications for democracies around the world and those striving to achieve them. The fear is it is extinguished.

After the Fall: Being American in the World We’ve Made. Ben Rhodes. Bloomsbury Publishing 2021.

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Is Biden Compromised?

When he campaigned for the presidency Joe Bide talked about how he would work positively for all Americans, with all Americans. How he would cooperate with colleagues in both Houses of Congress and from both parties. Reaching across the aisle to secure a bipartisan way forward.

His claims were built on a long track record of being a dealmaker. Someone who would negotiate in good faith, stick to his word and where necessary compromise to secure progress. He recognised that politics is often about satisficing. Not getting everything you want but getting enough to make a difference.

Sadly, that skill was beginning to lose its currency in the Obama administration. Senator Mitch McConnell pursued an increasingly scorched earth policy ignoring constitutional precedents, blocking the presidents power to appoint to the Supreme Court for the whole of his last year in office.

This, no quarter, approach to politics was placed on speed with the advent of President Trump. After four years of aggressive partisan politics, part of the attraction of Joe Biden was his contrasting personal integrity and obvious democratic instinct to work in partnership across the democratic spectrum.

He has tried to do it. He has negotiated endlessly with the GOP and even with two of his own senators to try to get his key legislation through. The scale of his programme has been slashed dramatically and attempts to get billionaires to pay their share of the costs has been defeated. Whatever does get through the legislature will be a shadow of his intended transformational programme.

Interestingly, in his three terms in office FD Roosevelt faced similarly aggressive opposition from the Congress. Like Biden he was a person who could see the need to compromise occasionally. But unlike President Biden he did not focus all his efforts within the Washington beltway. He used the emerging social media of the time, the wireless, to speak directly to the people with his fireside chats. He did exhausting cross country tours to speak directly to people.

He spoke with clarity and in simple terms about what he was trying to achieve and, more importantly, why it mattered to the people he was speaking with.

Ex President Trump is thought to have understood the importance of social media and the need to speak directly, in person, to his followers. The reality may be his personality required the adulation of crowds, in person and in the Twittersphere. Who knows?

Clearly, Joe Biden should not ape Trump. But he should learn from his building grass root support for policies and political positions thus placing strong pressure on members of the Senate and House to follow his lead.

The result in the Virginia gubernatorial is a warning light. There may be all manner of local factors that have effected this race however the shift from the presidential election is alarming. It demonstrates the Biden message is not getting through. Just not being Trump would be enough for many millions of people but it is not enough to secure the Midterms and certainly not enough for 2024.

Biden has worked really hard to explain the importance and benefit of his programme to law makers, it is now time to focus on the law takers.

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Trump – Cracks and Crumbles

Ex-President Trump still holds substantial sway over the Republican Party. The leader of the GOP in the House, Congressman McCarthy, is arguing the Independent Inquiry into the storming of the Capitol Building should include in its terms of reference consideration of ANTIFA’s actions following the murder of George Floyd. He has also turned a free vote into a party vote on the matter. This is all very much at the behest of the former president.

However, Mitch McConnell has not jumped on this issue so far. Further, Lyndsey Graham, a Trump loyalist for the 4 years of his presidency has now indicated he wants to move on from the Trump assertion about a stolen election. Liz Cheney may have been removed from her position within the party, but putting her outside the tent may prove to be a big mistake. She has unimpeachable conservative credentials and is a formidable and effective political operator. At the least she is likely to complicate the 2024 election.

Other senior Republicans outside of Washington are starting to question the sense of denying what every recount, every investigation and every court challenge has confirmed. The Joe Biden won fair and square and by a significant margin. Republican Governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan, talked about the dismissal of Cheney as “doubling down on failure”. It may take time but the incredible claims will, over time, have to be abandoned if the GOP wish to remain a credible mainstream party of the centre right. The current cracks will continue to widen and eventually the whole disreputable edifice will be swept away.

On another front, or fronts, the news in not good for the ex-President. Letitia James, the New York State Attorney General, has just confirmed a) that her civil investigation into the business affairs have just been combined with investigations into criminal matters; and b) that her department will be working with Manhattan District Attorney, Cyrus Vance, to investigate these matters.

Claims that ex-President Trump’s business routinely manipulated the valuation of assets have been under investigation for some time. His ex personal attorney, Michael Cohen, outlined how these had worked following his indictment for illegal payments to Stormy Daniels. Pressure is now building on the Trump organisation’s Chief Finance Officer to co-operate with investigators to avoid serious personal legal jeopardy. The tower that once was Trump may be about to crumble.