In September Andrew Bailey, one of the Governors of the Bank of England, declared that, whilst negative interest rates were in the bank’s tool bag they were not about to push for negative rates in the near future. Yet today the BBC were reporting that the Bank of England has written to banks in the UK asking them their state of preparedness for zero or negative interest rates.
The central banks of other countries, noticeably Switzerland Denmark and Japan have experimented with this approach. Initially it is about the central bank not paying any interest on short term deposits they hold from retail banks. The aim being to encourage the banks to lend more.
At the extreme of course it could lead to a situation where borrowers are paid to borrow and savers are charged for the bank holding their money for them.
Following the 2007/08 financial crisis some very innovative financial engineering has been engaged in by central banks. Plucking the fruits of the money tree they have pumped enormous amounts into national economies through quantitative easing.
The economics profession, stung by criticisms of their failure to foresee or anticipate the credit crunch, have been looking at how they theorise the impact of finance in the economy. Indeed, some have been adopting a more root and branch review of the very foundations of their subject.
In the US and the UK an obsession with fiscal deficits have evaporated in the face of, on the one hand corporate tax hand outs by Trump, and on the liquidity support for locked down industries on the other. Despite huge amounts having pumped into the economies, inflation remains stubbornly low on both sides of the Atlantic and investment rates remain morribund.
It may be the case that ever more innovative financial engineering is required to get economies moving. With mass unemployment, high debt levels and growing uncertainty, aggregate demand may remain flat or indeed fall.
How long before radical options like massive investment programmes in infrastructure (as recently proposed by the IMF), huge new green deal programmes, and basic income guarantees get traction and investment?