On Sunday I posted about a likely shift in gear as the government responded to a growing chorus of concern about the scale of the response to COVID-19. I agonised over sharing a link to an article by Tomas Pueyo which painted a rather bleak picture and was urging radical action on social distancing immediately. I did not want to contribute to a growing sense of unease. Little did I know.

I have more confidence now and believe yesterday was merely an introduction of what is to come and that by the end of the week legislation will be in place to enforce a much more rigid programme of social distancing, nay social isolation.

The report from Imperial College London has focused policy makers minds with its projections of a quarter of a million deaths unless radical action is taken to slow the spread of the disease. This would overwhelm the NHS and involve medial staff making live or die decisions.

There were a number of criticisms one could make about yesterday’s speech and it is easy to snipe from the sidelines. however phrases about what we are “going to recommend” do not help. And suggesting what people do is too weak. There may not be the legislation to back up clear instructions at the moment but that should not prevent them from being given and it is a matter of days, maybe hours, before that legislation is in place.

Two things are absolutely clear:

1. Social distancing should be taken really seriously. No social gatherings at all. There is plenty of guidance on this. One practical piece of advice, have a soap dispenser that you have to step over to get into your home. As soon as you come in from outside wash your hands before you touch anything. The virus can remain on surfaces for 72 hours+
2. Isolated individuals and families, particularly the elderly, who do not have local support will need help from their neighbours. Such help is the right thing to do from a moral point of view but also from a public health point of view. If people are infected  and hungry they will go out. Unless they are critical hospitals will not be interested. There is not the infrastructure of public social care support to help them. It is going to come down to neighbours to help them maintain the isolation.

Yesterday was tantamount to a declaration of war. Like all wars it depends upon public servants to be won. Sometimes that is the soldier, this time those on the front line are doctors, nurses and a range of other healthcare workers. We should not however forget the private sector workers who are on the front line particularly those operating the supermarket tills and transport staff who interact with the hundreds of members of public every day.

What is crystal clear now is that time is of the essence, and no longer should we underestimate what a difference a day makes.